Re: Coyote flew in to Michael right before landfall
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/21/2018, 2:24 am
Thanks for letting me know. I don't yet update data for the Coyote drone in real time and I never noticed they launched one.

I have now added that data into the recon system:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&product=hdob&identifier=Coyote5453%28Michael%29&aircraft=COYOTE&month=10&day=10&mission=WX&agency=NOAA&ob=10-10-033514-01--151-&undecoded=1

Map:



From: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&identifier=Coyote5453(Michael)&mission=WX&agency=NOAA&aircraft=COYOTE&month=10&day=10&product=hdob&mapping=cesium

For those wondering what we're talking about, it's shown in the animation in this 2010 video:



It was a part of mission 12, a NOAA P-3 mission:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=Michael&mission=12&agency=NOAA&product=hdob

I wish I had seen that in real time. It had some interesting data.

The highest data for the main recon aircraft had 30 second flight level winds of 147 mph and 10 second flight level winds of 150mph. The highest winds measured by dropsonde, which are just momentary winds, were 163mph at 1,152 ft for the 925mb level. That sonde was released from the plane at 10:13pm EDT October 9th. (Highest sonde data from all missions:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=Michael&product=sonde)

The highest surface winds estimated by SFMR for that NOAA mission were 10 second estimated surface winds of 127mph at 10:07pm EDT on October 9th.

The Coyote drone was on October 9th (EDT) and lasted from 11:35:14pm EDT to 11:47:46pm EDT. Given it can last longer than that, it probably got destroyed. Last 3 obs:

11:46:42pm EDT, 2,139 feet: 30s wind: 157 mph; 10s wind: 166mph
11:47:12pm EDT, 2,149 feet: 30s wind: 174 mph; 10s wind: 183mph
11:47:46pm EDT, 2,014 feet: 30s wind: 160 mph; 10s wind: 180mph

No data posted after that. I assume it got destroyed before it could relay anything else.

At that time, those would have been the highest winds directly measured in the storm.

The next NOAA P-3 mission had higher winds measured by sonde. The peak then was 186mph. (881mb level; At the time 925mb level was 295 ft and 850mb level was 2,717 ft) That sonde was released from the plane at 9:44am EDT on October 10th. But again, momentary winds. The highest surface winds estimated by SFMR for this NOAA mission were 10 second estimated surface winds of 140mph at 9:45am EDT on October 10th.

But the Coyote can stay at the same level for awhile, unlike a sonde that it dropping down from the plane to the ocean's surface only measuring momentary winds.

A sonde relies on whatever the winds were as it's dropping down. The Coyote can navigate at a certain level and find the highest winds you might miss from releasing a sonde in a single spot. (though the sonde will be tossed a long way depending on how fast the winds are that it experiences)

I like to look at sonde data to see what winds are in the upper levels. They are momentary winds and the highest winds are usually well above the surface, but you can compare mission to mission to see if there might be strengthening when maybe the surface winds haven't shown strengthening yet. I like to see how low in altitude some of the extreme winds might be, such as some that might be experienced in really tall building or mountains. Of course you have to rely on a sonde having sampled the highest winds on the way down, which isn't easy to do. It might get thrown out of the eyewall.

But the Coyote drone had seen some winds that nothing else had measured yet, and did it over a period of time at the same level, and that is interesting. They weren't surface winds, but still really interesting. It just showed that the storm was really strengthening. I wish they had another Coyote on the next mission, but that was the only one I see data for. The problem I think is that the main aircraft has to stay somewhat close to the drone to pick up the signal from it. Not really close, maybe dozens of miles I forget, but it can't do a normal pattern and get well away from the eyewall after passing through the eye. For example, this shows the path of the NOAA aircraft and the path of the Coyote drone that they dropped from the aircraft.



The Coyote drone would have been dropped sooner than the time noted, but I only have the data that the HDOB message for the Coyote has and that started then. But you can the path of the NOAA aircraft had just left where the Coyote was. It takes some time for it to drop from the plane to a lower altitude and then for its wings to open up. You can see the path of the main NOAA aircraft stays rather close to the Coyote rather than just making a straight line through the center. Because of that is why I think they don't do this often. They have to modify their flight path. Hopefully eventually these things will have greater range and the Coyote can be flown while the plane can do a more normal pattern.

Another map, zoomed out, of where this was:



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Coyote flew in to Michael right before landfall - jimw, 10/20/2018, 9:02 pm
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