Re: 96 ? on RAMMB/CIRA
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/31/2019, 11:34 pm
96L's been rather far out there, but it is getting closer to land impacts now. Now that there is an invest, and a high chance of development, you'll see more about it.
It's around 5 days from the Lesser Antilles and maybe around 9 days at the earliest from the Continental U.S. if there was a direct impact there. (perhaps even several days after that)
Around 6 days if there was a direct impact in Puerto Rico.
Atlantic view:
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850
At the moment, the GFS is showing more land impacts from a stronger system. The Euro has it weaker and has less land impacts.
The GFS shows it coming through the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico so they need to pay attention. Last run of GFS had strong tropical storm, borderline hurricane, as it reached Puerto Rico. Then stengthening further as it moves near/over the Bahamas. (but that's a long way off)
Tropical Atlantic satellite view:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G17§or=tpw&band=13&length=12
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Meanwhile, Flossie is forecast to be a tropical storm when it approaches Hawaii. It's uncertain if there will be a direct impact yet. Even if the winds are not very strong, rain could pose a problem in some areas there.
NHC cone:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/?cone#contents
Hawaii view:
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=cpac&pkg=mslp_uv850
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=cpac&pkg=mslp_uv850
Tropical Pacific satellite view:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G17§or=tpw&band=13&length=12
Rip currents are currently a threat in Hawaii due to Erick, which is forecast to pass south of the islands. (with some rain)
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What had been Invest 95L, around eastern Cuba, has a 10% chance in 5 days, but the invest is not currently being updated by the NHC.
Bob Henson has a blog on Erick, Flossie and 96L:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Erick-Bring-Heavy-Rains-High-Surf-Hawaii-Watching-96L-Atlantic?cm_ven=cat6-widget |
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