Re: 96 ? on RAMMB/CIRA
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/2/2019, 4:58 pm
The GFS was really bullish on the invest early on though. That's why the NHC probably went so high on it's chances. As of the August 1st 0Z run, it was forecasting a major hurricane eventually coming close to the U.S. East Coast.

These two links are to the OLD run from August 1st 0Z:

New GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2019080100&fh=240

Old GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-legacy&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2019080100&fh=240

I thought I would check the old GFS too to see if it was just the new version. Not as many frames for the old GFS so I don't know what it would have done after, but the older GFS was weaker and into Florida in what was available on that site.

Current run of GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Ever since, no development shown on the GFS and the NHC dropped it's chances, with the NHC talking about shear in the Outlook. Intensity forecasts that far out are not worth getting too concerned about, but I am surprised it showed so much development. From a major hurricane to nothing in the next run.



"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles is generating widespread disorganized showers. Some slow
development of this system is still possible, and a tropical
depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos"

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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the African wave gets a yellow - cypresstx, 7/29/2019, 7:55 pm
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