Re: 96 ? on RAMMB/CIRA
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/3/2019, 1:44 am
Long term the GFS has in the past overblown lots of things, though I was a little surprised since it was consistently showing some kind of development even in the shorter range and then nothing. Then again, out there we really only have satellites to monitor things. Such swings in the models are easier there I guess.
We'll have to see how it progresses with the shear and some dry air.
Shear:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr
Saharan Air Layer:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split
Satellite - Wide View:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=12
Satellite - Close Up:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL962019
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=96L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
If the SHIPS intensity output is close to correct, shear isn't going to be too high over the next several days.
ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE
INVEST AL962019 08/03/19 00 UTC
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 41 49 57 61 63 64 67 69
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 41 49 57 61 63 64 67 69
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 40 43 45 45 45 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 13 11 19 8 14 15 21 18 17 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -3 -6 -7 -3 0 3 -2 -5 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 7 359 4 8 3 3 357 309 311 295 280 295 279
SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 129 130 131 139 141 147 147 141 143 146 145
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 128 129 137 139 146 145 138 137 139 137
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 8 8 10
700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 56 53 52 54 57 61 63 64 63 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 40 33 34 40 39 39 49 54 48 60 56 46 49
200 MB DIV 24 38 44 42 30 20 19 54 56 26 34 17 30
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -7 -7 -5 0 3 -6 2 0 -2 -4
LAND (KM) 907 855 830 816 797 721 525 358 347 422 296 211 135
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.7 50.0 51.2 52.4 54.8 56.9 59.2 61.4 63.6 65.3 66.9 68.5
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 10 13 31 42 37 34 28 33 62 67
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 16. 24. 32. 36. 38. 39. 42. 44.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 47.2
2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/03/19 00 UTC
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 1.4
D200 (107s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.3% 11.4% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 13.1% 6.9% 1.6% 0.6% 3.5% 4.4% 3.9%
Bayesian: 0.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 2.4%
Consensus: 2.4% 10.7% 6.3% 2.9% 0.2% 1.3% 5.7% 2.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/03/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/03/2019 00 UTC
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 33 41 49 57 61 63 64 67 69
18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 39 47 55 59 61 62 65 67
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 41 49 53 55 56 59 61
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 33 41 45 47 48 51 53
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
From: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
The NHC is still 20%/40% at 2am Saturday. The X is now in the potential formation area for the first time. Since they first started covering it, around here, to a little bit sooner, was where they first thought it could form into a depression.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Just something we'll all continue to watch. |
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the African wave gets a yellow -
cypresstx,
7/29/2019, 7:55 pm Post A Reply
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