Re: even NHC explained the cone wrong
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/29/2019, 12:38 pm
I did want to get around to saying that was a really unfortunate mistake on their part. So many people get the cone wrong, they need to really always get it right.
About the cone:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
And below the map on the page with the cone they explain some:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents
"NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles."
The cone never changes during the season. This years's cone was based on the error from 2014 through 2018. Shown here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml |
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