NHC Discussion
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/7/2019, 2:56 pm
This is really why we should have recon all the way up to near Canada.
Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019
This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal
intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of
Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane-
force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many
vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to
baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition.
The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h
intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the
same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to
the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data.
There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory.
Key Messages:
1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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