| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents It is forecast to move toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Longer term, some of the models indicate that the storm might be blocked from moving north and might be forced westward or west-southwestward. That means everyone in the Bahamas, Cuba and contiguous U.S., including the Gulf, needs to keep an eye on it. GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ Satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16§or=car http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&numframes=12&lat=13&lon=-64 Radar: http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_Lionel_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_centralAtlantic&Composite=Sabre&ANISP=700&MAPP=1 http://www.meteo.cw/rad_comp_loop.php?Lang=Eng&St=TNCC&Sws=R11 "Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery also show that deep convection has increased and has become better organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern Windward Islands as a result. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX. Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48 hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 60.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart" Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Trinidad and Tobago Grenada and its dependencies St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Karen. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |