Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with
Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated
early this morning. However, surface observations and a very
recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is
well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward
Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry
mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant
strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may
have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global
models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over
the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico,
the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the
structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range
intensity forecast is quite uncertain.
The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in
good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the
next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week
as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic.
After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to
build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may
cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory
and lies near the consensus models.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.
2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 12.5N 61.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
Trinidad and Tobago
Grenada and its dependencies
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
U.S. Virgin Islands
Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:
Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.
These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown |