Re: 11am EDT Sunday: Tropical storm watch issued in Puerto Rico and all the Virgin Islands
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/23/2019, 8:48 pm
Normally I wouldn't mention it that far out, but given its initial path over 5 days, how it looked like it was headed out to open ocean after Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, I thought I would.
The models are still very uncertain regarding Karen in the long term on both the track and intensity.
If you take a look at the GFS and Euro, particularly the current 18Z GFS and 12Z Euro, things get very complex out in the Atlantic. Jerry is headed toward being near Bermuda right now, but after that things could get weird with Jerry. Jerry is not quite as crazy on the Euro, but it still has some unusual movement. How all that plays out may have something to do with Karen too.
Links for the latest runs:
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=z850_vort
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=uv850_vort |
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