Re: Possible western Gulf system?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/15/2019, 6:10 am
When it doesn't appear on this view of the GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

You could try some of the other options, like in the "Lower Dynamics" menu, try "Z850, Vort, & Wind" for example:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z850_vort

You can see what the other view might not be showing well if it is something weak.

I also like the GFS Ensemble member view:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs
To get there in the future, in the top menu go to "Ensemble > GEFS". Then in the "Lower Dynamics" select "Ensemble Member MSLP".

You can see where all the different lows go based on various things that are tweaked in the ensemble. Don't know specifically, but if they all go in about the same place, there is a lot of agreement. If they go all over the place, very little agreement and small changes in the atmosphere might have a greater impact on the future track, making for more uncertainty. That's the most I understand of it. (and I think that's right)

Here is the ECMWF with something somewhat like that GFS view:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=uv850_vort
In the "Lower Dynamics" menu, "850mb Vort, Wind, & MSLP".



I don't usually look at those alternate 850mb views unless there is something harder to pick up, which is good if it stays that way because it would be weaker.
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Possible western Gulf system? - Beachlover, 10/15/2019, 3:14 am
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