Tuesday (Aug. 11th): Invest 95L has a 90% chance of development
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/11/2020, 11:35 am
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. First-light visible satellite imagery shows that a better-defined
center of circulation is forming in association with a low pressure
system located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has become more organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and advisories could be initiated on a tropical
depression as early as later today if these development trends
continue. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward
at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few
days, and conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Berg"

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5





The GFS shows it approaching the NE corner of the Antilles.


MSLP and 850mb wind:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850


Vorticity:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort


I include the vorticity because it is hard to pick up after the Antilles on the previous links before these. That's good long term if it were to stay that way.



Satellite:



Visible:

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&numframes=15&width=1250&height=500&info=band02&zoom=4&mapcolor=white&lat=14&lon=-50

Floaters:

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al952020

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=95L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0



Atlantic IR wide view:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=13&length=12

Global AVN imagery from SSEC RealEarth:
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center=11.3,-38.2&zoom=6&timespan=-6h&products=globalwv.-100,global1kmvis.-100,globalir.-100,globalir-bd.-100,globalir-funk.-100,globalir-ott.-100,globalir-nhc.-100,globalwv-grad.-100,globalvis.-100,globalir-avn.65&timeproduct=globalir-avn

SLIDER by RAMMB (can be hard to operate):
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/




HurricaneCity model system:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2020&storm=95&latestinvest=1
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Tuesday (Aug. 11th): Invest 95L has a 90% chance of development - Chris in Tampa, 8/11/2020, 11:35 am
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