Invest 92L
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/13/2021, 10:31 pm
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Storm specific models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2021&storm=92&latestinvest=1

Satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=13&length=24



At the moment there is no recon scheduled. On Saturday morning they talked about a possible invest they might investigate Monday, but in Sunday's Recon Plan of the Day they didn't mention it.



NOUS42 KNHC 131435
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT SUN 13 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-013

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



NOUS42 KNHC 121430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 12 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-012

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 19.5N 94.5W FOR 14/1900Z.



I like to look at the 72 hour surface forecast from the NHC and it is not currently on it 72 hours out:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Of course Bay of Campeche systems can be tricky. We sometimes see surprises from that area, with more strengthening than expected. Right now things are trending more toward the western Gulf, but we'll see how it progresses. It seems like it will be slow to develop at first, if it does. But anything in that area that is supposed to move north needs to be watched carefully if it were to start to develop and have a lot of time over water.

I also like looking at the SHIPS intensity text output:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
Looking for the last released text for AL9221, however the tracker with it has it going into the Pacific, so the shear data for example isn't helpful.

It's still too early to know much about this potential system, other than potentially heavy rain for where it goes.

I do like to look at the ensemble members too for the GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs
They don't show much of anything over the next 3 days, with then some potential development and then you can see where some of the individual ensemble members take it. As you can see, aside from maybe one, all are west of Florida right now.

It might be another 2 to 3 days before we get more of an idea of what might develop. Don't know about your ordinary afternoon storms, but this is still a ways out, with any impact with your area if things were to change being next weekend of even into that following week. We have plenty of time to watch it.
34
In this thread:
BILL? - Beachlover, 6/12/2021, 10:45 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.