Invest 99L has a high chance (70%) of development within 5 days as of 2am EDT Wednesday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/25/2021, 2:17 am
Since some of the models are into or near Louisiana, at least at the moment, I wanted to create a new thread for that reason too. Until we have a well defined center they might go back and forth.



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently
located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near or
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Only slow development of
this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable
upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
turns eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven
29
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Invest 99L in the Caribbean - Chris in Tampa, 8/24/2021, 9:12 pm
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