Recon starts later today. Once we have a well defined center and some G-IV data for the models, maybe we will have a better idea of where it is headed. I would encourage everyone to be prepared though. If you live along the Gulf coast, anywhere, you should be up to date on your hurricane preparations that should have been done when the season started and/or been kept up with during the season.
https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness
Gas tank in car full? Know where you would evacuate if you need to? Have important documents in a safe place? Have a good supply of medications? Have non-perishable food? Manual can opener? Bottled water or containers you can put water in? Prepared for if the power goes out? Flashlights, batteries, radio. Can you charge your phone in your car? Bring adapters with you. Know what flood zone you are in? Know shelters that allow pets if you have one? Know where sand bags are usually available in your area? Do you have a person you will call to let them know where you are and are safe that other people can contact? (so you don't have a lot of people calling you and maybe using your battery) And you have to consider COVID-19 too, so make sure you have a supply of masks and hand sanitizer. A small list, but just a few things that should be considered. That's for everyone. It's good to try and keep up with things like that through the season. (like never get too low on medications and never have a near empty fuel tank during the season) As things get clearer, then you would need to make more serious preparations. This potential storm could make landfall in about 4 days, so the timetable is going to be a bit condensed. If you don't have yard waste pickup between now and when the storm nears, it's a bit too late to do tree trimming. (unless you could secure the debris which could become airborne) If you don't have shutters, messing with plywood takes time depending on how many windows you have if you haven't done it previously.
We just don't know what the intensity is going to be like yet. We need to see how quickly it gets a well defined center and how it starts to develop. But given it could be just 4 days out from final landfall along the Gulf coast, and less to start feeling the effects, we can't ignore the models that develop it into an intense storm. Usually it is good to wait until we have a well defined center before looking at some of the models, like the hurricane specific ones. But in this case there isn't a lot of time before potential landfall. We just don't know if the models have a good handle on things given the likely future storm isn't well defined yet, but there isn't a lot of time to wait and see. So we need to take them seriously, even though normally there is too much uncertainty intensity wise when a storm still doesn't have a well defined center. We just don't have as much time to wait and see. So it's best to plan on a strong hurricane potentially being in the Gulf this weekend and just hope something changes.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a
couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind
data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in
portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba. In addition, this system could bring
dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to
portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of
Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However,
uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development
of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Papin/Beven |