The GFS has shown a hurricane for a lot of runs. The Euro is showing a hurricane for the most recent run (12Z) and for the 0Z run it was either a strong tropical storm or hurricane. The Canadian, NAVGEM and German ICON global models also all show a storm that is either very near hurricane strength, or a hurricane, for multiple runs.
We're seeing a lot of model agreement that a storm is going to form, and that it could be a hurricane. It's still really early though since the NHC still says "A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia" as of 2pm EDT Wednesday. Where it organizes obviously matters a lot.
The GFS ensemble members are from Mexico to Florida as of posting, so everyone along the Gulf coast should be keeping an eye on it:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
Jeff Masters has a blog post today about Invest 99L. Link to main page of the blog:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/
Direct link to blog today:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/caribbean-disturbance-a-threat-to-mexico-cuba-and-part-of-u-s-gulf-coast/
(He shows the 6Z GEFS members. The 12Z was the one that had some members further east)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition,
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind,
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas,
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns
eastward over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Air Force and NOAA P-3 missions scheduled. A NOAA G-IV mission is also scheduled. And two more NOAA G-IV missions after that are also planned. That will sample the upper environment around and ahead of the storm. That will be important data for the models and will help with the track.
NOUS42 KNHC 251610
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1210 PM EDT WED 25 AUGUST 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-086
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 26/2000Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. NOAA9 O209A CYCLONE
C. 26/1600Z C. 27/0530Z
D. 13.5N 81.5W D. NA
E. 26/2000Z TO 26/2300Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA3 0309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0409A CYCLONE
C. 27/0800Z C. 27/0815Z
D. 17.1N 84.1W D. 17.0N 84.0W
E. 27/1000Z TO 27/1400Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
MISSIONS FOR THE 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z SYNOPTIC
TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z AND 28/0530Z
RESPECTIVELY
C. A NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION DEPARTING
KLAL AT 28/0800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
The possible tropical cyclone does now appear on the 48hr and 72 hour NHC surface forecasts as of posting:
24hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gif
48hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW_sm3.gif
72hr: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
From Surface Forecasts on this page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/
It's around the center of the formation area region in the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, but I like to see when they say "possible tropical cyclone" in those surface forecasts.
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