| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite and radars in this post: https://canetalk.com/2022/09/1664508245_1664494258.shtml 4 to 7 foot water rise above ground possible between "Isle of the Palms to Little River Inlet" if peak surge occurs at high tide. Waves on top. Experimental Peak Storm Surge Forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?peakSurge#contents From forecast advisory at 11am EDT Friday: Tropical storm force winds extend: 276 miles in northeast quadrant 150 miles in southeast quadrant 138 miles in southwest quadrant 161 miles in northwest quadrant Hurricane force winds extend out 46 miles in northeast quadrant 0 miles in southeast quadrant (as of posting) 46 miles in southwest quadrant 69 miles in northwest quadrant Tropical storm force wind field is large, especially in northeast quadrant, which is why water rise will occur well away from center to the northeast. Also, local maxima of 12 inches of rain in parts of South Carolina. Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia today. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible today into early Saturday across portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Mountainous/hilly areas where rainfall falls then travels down streams and rivers well inland is also a threat during this storm. Also, continued flood threat in Florida as already fallen rains travel down rivers. Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Satellite images show that Ian has re-developed deep convection near the center, with frontal features away from the core of the cyclone. Additionally, a primitive eyewall has formed around about half of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently found peak flight-level winds of 80 kt and SFMR winds of 72 kt. Radar data is also showing winds of up to 85 kt around 10 thousand feet, with hurricane-force winds now in the northeastern quadrant. These values support the initial wind speed of 75 kt. NOAA buoy 41004 near the center recently reported a minimum pressure of 981 mb with some wind, which supports the advisory value. Ian is now moving faster to the north, around 12 kt, and should continue to accelerate to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. The new forecast is adjusted a bit to the east, but should still lead to a landfall in South Carolina this afternoon. Little change in intensity is expected before Ian makes landfall, due to competing influences of strong shear versus baroclinic forcing from the trough over water waters. Ian should rapidly transition into an extratropical low tonight after landfall, and dissipate by Saturday night. It should be emphasized that dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge should rapidly increase during the next few hours in the Storm Surge and Hurricane Warning areas due to Ian moving faster toward the coast. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane Warning area soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in North Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 32.4N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 34.1N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 37.5N 80.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...HURRICANE IAN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARRIVING SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 79.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of the Savannah River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina * Neuse River North Carolina * St. Johns River Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico River * Cape Fear River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 79.0 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Ian is forecast to move more quickly toward the north today followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Ian will reach the coast of South Carolina today, and then move farther inland across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian should maintain about the same strength before landfall later, then weaken and rapidly transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight. Ian should dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h) were recently reported at an elevated WeatherFlow station on Winyah Bay Range in South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches) based on data from NOAA buoy 41004, located about 45 miles southeast of Charleston. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Isle of the Palms to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft * Little River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft * Savannah River to Isle of the Palms...2-4 ft * Cape Fear River...2-4 ft * East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River...1-2 ft * Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Hurricane Warning area in South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina soon. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the warning areas on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in North Carolina by this afternoon. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia today. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible today into early Saturday across portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast Virginia tonight through early Saturday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |