Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands. Further development of the wave
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph,
reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

NOUS42 KNHC 021544
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 02 OCTOBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-129

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 11.6N 54.5W FOR 04/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE ORLENE
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 03/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0316E ORLENE
C. 03/1300Z
D. 22.2N 106.3W
E. 03/1700Z TO 03/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.