| I won't be able to follow this storm too closely. My grandmother is in the hospital in Tennessee. I arrived here early this morning. (Sunday) Since she's 100, and they don't really want to do any surgery to prolong what they can't actually fix, she's not likely to survive. There's a chance, and they might do a temporary feeding tube to see if she improves, but they can't fix the issue. She has bleeding around her brain and while they could do surgery to remove some of the blood, it doesn't fix the problem. And the neurosurgeon doesn't want to operate since it would be temporary at best and at 100 it's just not something they recommend. She's lived 100 years, a really long time, enough to have a giant birthday party we had for her over the summer. I also think I injured my left arm a little either putting up or taking down boards for Ian. It hasn't gotten better, a bit worse, since then and I was going to go to the doctor Monday for an annual physical, and have that checked out too but had to cancel. (since I'm right handed sometimes it doesn't bother me at all) I guess some advice there is be careful when preparing for storms. Or it might be something like varicose veins bothering me. I might go to the doctor up here if needed since I don't know how long I'll be up here. Before we left Saturday evening we pushed some of our chairs on our patio somewhat behind a counter so they might not blow around as much. Took the grill in from outside and turned over my bird bath onto the ground. It's possible we could get as much wind as we did during Ian here, which wasn't too much. (in Tampa) The potential risk is less though on the west coast side of the state, unless it were to change and go around the state, compared to what Ian could have done around Tampa had it hit closer. But as for the Panhandle, it would depend on if it makes it back out over water and for how long. The NOAA G-IV is scheduled and is usually helpful when data from around the storm gets into the GFS and maybe some other models. Not for Ian, but usually that makes things a bit clearer. Though people along the east coast of Florida will already need to be preparing, perhaps already prepared, by the time it gets clearer on what it might do after landfall. I think I see from some of the posts here and taking a look at the GFS and Euro that they are close together on landfall. Could change, but there is some agreement. Haven't looked at prior runs. GFS and Euro aren't set on it getting into the western Gulf. HWRF and HMON are still further west. (based on looking at just 1 run) I usually like to use the HMON and HWRF if something is developed. I usually then look for intensity, not track. Not sure how they do compared to global models in recent years. Sometimes they do offer something like what could be a worst case scenario to simply be aware of. I think they usually overdo weak storms that haven't developed much yet. But you can't of course ever rule anything out. NOAA G-IV missions start Monday evening. So overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning the data should get into the GFS. Some in one run and then the rest likely in the next run. NOUS42 KNHC 061820 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0120 PM EST SUN 06 NOVEMBER 2022 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z NOVEMBER 2022 TCPOD NUMBER.....22-163 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF BAHAMAS) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49 A. 07/1730Z A. 08/0000Z B. AFXXX 02KKA INVEST B. NOAA9 03KKA SURV C. 07/1330Z C. 07/1730Z D. 25.5N 69.5W D. NA E. 07/1700Z TO 07/2030Z E. NA F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. LOW LEVEL INVEST G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72 A. 08/0000Z A. 08/0530Z B. NOAA3 04KKA TDR B. AFXXX 0517A CYCLONE C. 07/2000Z C. 08/0130Z D. 26.5N 70.0W D. 27.5N 70.5W E. 07/2130Z TO 08/0200Z E. 08/0500Z TO 08/0830Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 73 A. 08/1200Z A. 08/1130Z,1730Z B. NOAA9 0617A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0717A CYCLONE C. 08/0530Z C. 08/0830Z D. NA D. 27.5N 72.0W E. NA E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1730Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. FIX FLIGHT SEVEN - NOAA 43 A. 08/1200Z B. NOAA3 0817A CYCLONE C. 08/0800Z D. 27.5N 72.1W E. 08/0900Z TO 08/1400Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS FOR 09/0000Z AND 09/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 08/2000Z AND 09/0800Z. C. ANOTHER TWO NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS FOR 09/0000Z AND 09/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 08/1730Z AND 09/0530Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE. THE PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE AS FOLLOWS: 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 79 A. 08/0000Z B. AFXXX 03WSE IOP03 C. 07/1800Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 30.0N 125.0W, 30.0N 140.0W, 40.0N 140.0W, AND 40.0N 125.0 W. E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/2030Z TO 08/0230Z F. RESOURCES PERMITTING 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: THE TEAL 78 ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION TASKED FOR 07/0000Z WILL NOT BE FLOWN. $$ WJM Recon Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php |