BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Rio Lagartos.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River,
including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from
Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor
and Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast
west of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and south of Chokoloskee
to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the
Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio
Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to
Cabo Catoche
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to
Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.6 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a
turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula..

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven/quote]
[quote]Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with
cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small
ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have
increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial
intensity is raised to 85 kt.

The center has nudged a little southward over the past several
hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving
within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the
southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface
low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h,
with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to
move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed.
The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will
cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant
differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET
is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much
farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the
storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The
new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west
coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the
multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more
eastward as it becomes extratropical.

For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of
moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to
rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast
continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane.
After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable
environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore,
some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the
Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a
large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with
life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After
landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition,
which should be complete by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with
damaging waves is also likely along portions of the coast of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven