Re: Rafael - 10:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6: NW at 14 mph: 960 mb: 110 mph - ERC beginning, could ease rapid intensification
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/6/2024, 2:27 pm
I guess the question would be does something change when it gets that further west in the Gulf, if that's what happens with the path. Right now the models seem to think the storm will continue to weaken at that point. Euro is a tropical storm into Mexico in the Bay of Campeche and the GFS just loses the vortex in the western Gulf. But that gets too far out to look at closely.
But for now, it's a major hurricane for Cuba. The water remained warm enough down there, but that's a different story further north. Now if it made its way to the western Gulf, the water temperature is warmer there than the northern or eastern Gulf. I guess it's not so much the shear on that path, but the drier air that would be around.
SHIPS intensity text output:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D
Is like that graphic. Shear isn't too high, but humidity is lower.
I guess that is best seen on these for example:
GFS relative humidity for 700mb to 300mb:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=midRH
It's really pronounced on the GFS.
Euro isn't as dry and that's probably why it keeps it intact enough to get to Mexico:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=midRH
(change run time to 0Z or 12Z for longer version of Euro) |
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