| They still mention it could be stronger being further south away from the shear and in more moist air. The models are still all over the place. GFS Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs Euro Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs GFS ensemble members are more all over the place than Euro ensemble. 18Z Wednesday main GFS model spun it around close to the northern Gulf, while 0Z was further away and down toward the Bay of Campeche. That's why the ensemble members are more helpful to show that there is a lot of uncertainty on the path and timing. Some of them are all over the Gulf. And there are some different models that have it coming to the northern Gulf coast too as a tropical storm. Most models are weak. Toward the northern Gulf coast for sure, though the HAFS models A and B are of a potentially major hurricane perhaps in the Bay of Campeche diving southwestward. An unusual path. So a lot of uncertainty all around, even a lot on intensity if it's that far south. Those two stronger models, the HAFS ones, have faster movement with landfall within 5 days. Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL182024 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/floaters/18L/18L_floater.html https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al182024 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 Satellite images show that Rafael remains fairly well-organized, with very cold convective cloud tops, although the Central Dense Overcast is a bit ragged looking. Convective banding features are limited and no eye is evident on the imagery at this time. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation, indicative of some westerly vertical wind shear over the tropical cyclone. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the system measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 101 kt in the northeast quadrant which equates to a peak surface wind of about 90 kt. This intensity is also supported by a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael later this morning. The hurricane continues to move away from western Cuba with an initial motion of about 305/10 kt. Rafael is located on the southwest side of mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. Most of the global models guidance shows this ridge building westward, albeit weakly, over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. As a result, Rafael should turn westward with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. Then, the majority of the models show a ridge building to the west of the system. This steering evolution would cause Rafael to turn more southward, and this is shown by the dynamical model consensus track prediction. The new official forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous NHC track but is not as far south as the consensus. The motion is likely to be quite slow during the latter part of the forecast period. There remains significant uncertainty in the future track of Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico and additional adjustments to subsequent official track forecasts are likely. Southwesterly vertical wind shear should continue to affect Rafael, although the latest SHIPS model output does not show very strong shear over the system during the next several days. However, the numerical guidance does indicate very dry air around Rafael through the forecast period, which should induce weakening. If the system moves farther south over the Gulf than currently anticipated, it could encounter lower wind shear, and likely a more moist air mass. This could result in Rafael maintaining its intensity more than currently expected. For now, the official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and calls for weakening later in the period. This is similar to the latest model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. 2. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 3. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 24.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.4N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 24.5N 87.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.6N 90.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.6N 92.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 24.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 23.5N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Cuba. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to continue to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Dry Tortugas through this morning. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |