Above-average SSTs and above-average shear
Posted by JAC on 4/13/2010, 7:15 am
Dr Master's has a good blog on high SST anamoly today.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Graphics shows a warm pool setting up off Africa.

That is one side to the coin - the other is shear and UL wind patterns.

You really need a good anti-cyclone for TC genesis.

All winter long, water in the Carib has been above 26C, yet no TC's.

Why?   Because of high shear.

The graph below shows currently very high shear anamolies.



One thing that is interesting is that the Omega Block, that was present for much of the winter, has returned.

That is why there hasn't been much severe weather outbreaks so far this season.

This should be watched closely in the next couple months.

If still intact, this could be a setup for the GOM when SST's heat up and a UL ridge is in place.


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Above-average SSTs and above-average shear - JAC, 4/13/2010, 7:15 am
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