A Significant Severe Event
Posted by JAC on 5/7/2010, 6:49 am
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0342 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2010
 
  VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SVRL DAYS AT
  MAINTAINING A COHERENT UPR TROUGH AS IT EJECTS ENE FROM THE FOUR
  CORNERS TO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY /DAY 4/.  ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
  SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED/FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE...ALL INDICATIONS
  CONTINUE TO POINT TO A STRONG SFC LOW MIGRATING ACROSS NRN KS DURING
  THE AFTN WITH STRONG SLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS
  NWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF A STOUT EML.  EXPECT STORMS WILL INITIATE
  ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK BY MID-MONDAY
  AFTN...THEN MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
  ACROSS CNTRL-ERN KS/OK DURING THE EVENING.  

FCST
  THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF A
  SIGNIFICANT SVR EVENT...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
  HAIL.    

  THEREAFTER...THE UPR WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND SHEAR ENE TOWARD
  THE GRTLKS REGION.  IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER MID-LVL WAVE WILL SETTLE
  INTO THE GRT BASIN REGION...BUT GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE
  HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE.  ADDITIONALLY...IT IS UNCLEAR ON WHERE THE
  FRONT THAT FOLLOWS THE FORMER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN WHAT WILL
  LIKELY BE A COUPLE DAYS OF EPISODIC TSTM CLUSTERS THAT WILL AUGMENT
  THE FRONT.  AS SUCH...BEYOND DAY 4...THE DECREASE IN PATTERN
  PREDICTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DRAWING OF ADDITIONAL SVR AREAS.
 
  ..RACY.. 05/07/2010
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Monday 5/10 - Potential Severe Outbreak Central Plains - JAC, 5/6/2010, 7:16 am
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