Watch going up soon
Posted by JAC on 5/7/2010, 3:17 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0159 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IND...SERN LWR MI...AND NRN OH
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 071859Z - 072030Z
 
  THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE WITHIN THE
  NEXT FEW HOURS.  A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
  OR SO.
 
  RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT
  EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW NOW IN THE PROCESS OF
  MIGRATING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
  STRONGEST NEAR SURFACE THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS
  FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO INTO SOUTHEASTERN
  LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ONGOING.
  THIS FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
  TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AN INTENSIFYING 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES
  EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND WEAK
  MID-LEVEL COOLING CONTRIBUTES TO ERODING INHIBITION...INCREASING AND
  INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED.  THE BULK OF NEW
  STORMS MAY INITIALLY FORM TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT
  ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONTAL
  ZONE...PERHAPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.
 
  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED...40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
  LAYER MEAN FLOW...AND MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF
  1000 J/KG...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  IT IS
  STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE
  INTO A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM...OR TEND TO REMAIN
  DISCRETE IN NATURE...BUT HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED
  TO EXIST IN STORMS FORMING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.  IT APPEARS
  STORM MOTION COULD PARALLEL FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR AN
  ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING
  WINDS TAKES PLACE LATER THIS EVENING...FARTHER TO THE EAST.
  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS.
 
  ..KERR.. 05/07/2010
 
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Monday 5/10 - Potential Severe Outbreak Central Plains - JAC, 5/6/2010, 7:16 am
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