High Risk
Posted by JAC on 5/10/2010, 6:19 am





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1258 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
 
  VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS AND ERN
  OK...
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
  KS...CNTRL AND ERN OK...WRN MO AND NW AR...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
  CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARKS...
 
  ...REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK AND LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
  TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY IN ERN OK AND SE KS FROM LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
 
  ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
  RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
  AS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY
  INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
  ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS
  WITH THIS CONVECTION BEING SHUNTED NNEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH RISK
  AREA AROUND MIDDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS AND
  DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN OK THIS
  AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO THE
  UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ACROSS ECNTRL OK WHERE FORECAST SFC TEMPS
  SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S F. THIS RESULTS IN A TONGUE OF
  STRONG INSTABILITY FROM NRN TX EXTENDING NWD INTO NRN OK WITH MLCAPE
  VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
  APPROACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A 75-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
  EWD ACROSS NRN OK. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
  SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA
  REACHING THE 70 TO 80 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
  INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION AS STORMS GO
  UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON.
 
  THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
  WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA AT 00Z SHOWING 0-3
  KM HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR
  ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE CURRENT
  THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE I-35
  CORRIDOR FROM WICHITA SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY WITH THE CELLS BECOMING
  TORNADIC TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO THE TULSA AREA
  AND INTO FAR SE KS BY EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE TO THE
  EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 KT SUGGESTING THE TORNADOES COULD BE LONG-TRACK
  WITH STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH
  RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
  WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT VERY
  LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS
  THREAT SHOULD EXIST SSWWD INTO NRN AND WCNTRL TX WHERE SUPERCELLS
  MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES.
 
  FURTHER NORTH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO
  INITIATE NORTH OF SFC LOW IN CNTRL AND NRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN KS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
  SUGGESTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WILL
  BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
  ERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL
  ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A BOWING
  LINE-SEGMENT MOVING INTO WRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING.
 
  ..BROYLES/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/10/2010
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Monday 5/10 - Potential Severe Outbreak Central Plains - JAC, 5/6/2010, 7:16 am
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