Re: MAJOR NHC Bust
Posted by chucky7777 on 9/25/2010, 2:50 am
I  remember the 5 A.M. discussion on Fri. No real surprise to me that it changed significantly like that, i have to mention the 3 day from the NHC looks ok to me ...........
      TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  MATTHEW IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HR.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
THAT MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND/OR GUATEMALA...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING THE
CENTER REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL..HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST MATTHEW TO REACH THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE DIFFERENCES
APPEAR TO STEM FROM THE INTERACTION OF MATTHEW WITH A DEVELOPING
MONSOON LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.  FOR NOW...THE
TRACK FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND CALL FOR
A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO KEEP
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.Matthew Advisory and Discussion Archive
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MAJOR NHC Bust - wxboy34, 9/24/2010, 3:12 pm
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