Here we go
Posted by JAC on 1/31/2011, 1:22 pm



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1152 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/NE MO AND CNTRL IL
 
  CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
 
  VALID 311752Z - 312145Z
 
  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS THE
  DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
  INTO CNTRL MO. WITH THE SFC WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...A
  MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
  AFTERNOON...AS PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EWD.
 
  A ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DRIVEN BY SWLY FLOW ATOP A COLD AIR
  MASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
  SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS E-CNTRL/NE MO AND CNTRL IL THROUGH
  MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF A
  25-30 KT 850-MB JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
  DRAPED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO DRIVE LOW-LEVEL
  FRONTOGENESIS...ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.
 
  ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...INCLUDING THE
  INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND STL...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
  AS FREEZING RAIN. IN THIS REGION...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
  THAT PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLETELY MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH 850-MB
  TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES MAINTAINED AOB 0C.
  FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES PER 3
  HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN IN ANY CONVECTIVE
  ELEMENTS...GIVEN 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
 
  ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...RUC FORECAST
  SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WARM NOSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
  /AOB 3C/ THAN THOSE FURTHER SOUTH...PREVENTING COMPLETE MELTING OF
  PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
  PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THIS REGION...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
  PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ANTICIPATED.
 
  THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z.
 
  ..COHEN/ROGERS.. 01/31/2011
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Conclues PDS Winter Storm - JAC, 1/30/2011, 8:07 pm
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