On the road to hell
Posted by JAC on 1/31/2011, 4:02 pm



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0245 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL/CNTRL IND
 
  CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
 
  VALID 312045Z - 010145Z
 
  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS
  E CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FREEZING
  RAIN...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS...WILL BE A
  CONCERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. ACROSS NORTH
  CNTRL IND...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF UP TO 1
  INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR AFTER 22Z.
 
  A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL IL CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
  SHIFT EWD...WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING FARTHER WSW
  INTO E CNTRL MO. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
  WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 285-295 K LAYER ATOP A BROAD
  LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE
  ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE 19Z
  RUN OF THE RUC MODEL...AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAX STRENGTHENS TO
  THE EAST OF AN 850-MB VORT CENTER. CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF
  THIS JET MAX WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO INCREASE
  FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL
  ASCENT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINTAINED AND REGENERATE
  UPSTREAM. WITH WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC BELOW
  FREEZING...A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED.
 
  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
  INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 3-4C IN THE 850-880-MB
  LAYER...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE WARM
  NOSE BEFORE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. FURTHER TO THE
  NORTH...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD /AOB
  3C/ TO ALLOW FOR SLEET...WITH SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS N CNTRL IN. THE
  15Z SREF RUN INDICATES THAT SNOWFALL COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY IN
  THIS REGION...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING POTENTIALLY SUPPORTS BANDED
  PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
 
  ..COHEN/ROGERS.. 01/31/2011
 
48
In this thread:
Conclues PDS Winter Storm - JAC, 1/30/2011, 8:07 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.