Strong Uncapped STP in AR
Posted by JAC on 5/25/2011, 12:29 pm
Will be moving NE and convection could fire in a few hours.

Again, SREF was not showing it in this morning's run.






ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0954 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN MO...WRN AND NRN AR
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 251454Z - 251630Z
 
  STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN WRN
  MO AND WRN AR. AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY. INITIALLY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
  WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...A TORNADO
  THREAT WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY
  ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
  CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF STORM INITIATION.
 
  THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER ERN KS WITH A BROAD
  WARM SECTOR EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MO AND ACROSS ALL
  OF AR INTO MS AND WRN TN. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS ANALYZED
  ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BUT THE CAP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
  AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT-TERM
  MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW MO AND
  WRN AR AROUND 17Z...SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD ACROSS SE MO AND
  NE AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
  65 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
  PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
  INITIALLY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT AS
  THE STORMS MOVE INTO A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...A THREAT FOR
  TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ERN PART
  OF THE MCD AREA BY 18Z TO 21Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
  IN THE 350 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
 
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Mid MS-River Area under High-Risk for Severe Weather Today - JAC, 5/25/2011, 9:01 am
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