Strong violent tornadoes expected next 2 to 4 hrs
Posted by JAC on 5/25/2011, 4:42 pm





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0310 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY
 
  CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 370...
 
  VALID 252010Z - 252145Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 370 CONTINUES.
 
  THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS SE
  MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH
  LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
  TORNADO WATCH 370.
 
  NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
  THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL MO SWD INTO NRN AR.
  AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES ARE
  ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AT MID-LEVELS...A 65
  TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS AR WITH THE NOSE
  OF THE JET MOVING INTO WRN KY. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE LIFT
  AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
  VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO
  55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN AR. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
  MOVES NEWD INTO WRN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
  VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PERSISTENT
  AND DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT TORNADOES.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
 
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Mid MS-River Area under High-Risk for Severe Weather Today - JAC, 5/25/2011, 9:01 am
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