Long-tack tornadoes expected. Another PDS coming up.
Posted by JAC on 5/25/2011, 1:14 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1152 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF AR...WRN TN...NRN MS
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 251652Z - 251815Z
 
  DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
  THREAT OF LONG-TRACKED/STRONG TORNADOES. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
  REQUIRED...MOST LIKELY BY 18Z.
 
  RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CU FIELD AND
  CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MUCH OF AR DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT
  EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN TX AS OF 16Z. 12Z WRF-NMM
  DEPICTS DISCRETE CELLS EMANATING OUT OF THIS CU FIELD BY 19Z...WITH
  RECENT HRRR RUNS FASTER WITH TSTM INITIATION BUT SIMILAR IN
  CONVECTIVE MODE. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO
  SUPERCELLS GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER
  PROFILER AND VWP DATA...AMIDST A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY
  WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A
  BROAD AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LLJ...POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/STRONG
  TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GREATLY TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON.
 
  ..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
 
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Mid MS-River Area under High-Risk for Severe Weather Today - JAC, 5/25/2011, 9:01 am
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