Sudduth, Masters & StormW - thoughts on gulf
Posted by cypresstx on 8/30/2011, 1:05 pm
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

Our next area of interest will be the Gulf of Mexico as it appears, according to most computer guidance, that a low pressure area wants to develop from energy now gathering in the Caribbean Sea. How strong it might be and where it would track are questions that I cannot answer just now. The best case would be for just a tropical disturbance to form and bring rain to Texas and surrounding areas without sticking around for too long. Sea surface temps in the Gulf are running well above normal and so if we do get development, we'll have to watch it closely for a possible quick ramp up. I do not currently see any indication of a hurricane threat but it's late August and the potential exists for something to develop- let's stay aware. I'll have another post here tonight.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Gulf of Mexico development possible late this week
Several of our best computer models for predicting formation of tropical cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF, are predicting that an upper level pressure interacting with a tropical wave now over the the Western Caribbean could combine to spawn a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next week. The formation location is likely to be off the coast of Louisiana or Texas, but the track of the system is hard to predict at this point.


http://www.stormw.com/

Elsewhere, the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement of development in the southern GOMEX/BOC area in about 5-6 days. However, these models disagree on steering of this.  The GFS has it meander a little, before heading toward the Gulf coast states, while the ECMWF takes it west.  This will be watched closely, and if cyclogenesis does occur, I'll have a better idea then, of what lies in store as far as any steering.
191
In this thread:
BOC next week? - cypresstx, 8/28/2011, 9:44 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.