Re: NHC discussions
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/31/2011, 11:35 pm
If the storm gets close, or is expected to get close, to the NE corner of the islands they'll probably send out recon which could give the models a better idea on track. I was just reading something about Irene from NOAA (Irene by the numbers) and it says:

"From the time Irene entered the southeastern Bahamas late on Tuesday 23 August, the NHC official track forecasts were remarkably consistent in showing a path through extreme eastern North Carolina, along or very near the coast of the Mid-Atlantic States, and into the NYC/Long Island area. Forecast model guidance began converging on this solution when the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet began its surveillance missions on Tuesday the 23rd."

Recon really does help, most especially the high altitude missions sampling the environment around the storm. If all of the models don't have a lot of data, or reliable data, going into them, they are not going to output great data.

I like to see some reconnaissance data in cases where there is no, or very little, directly measured data available, most especially high altitude data, that the models can ingest.

But, If she were to start getting left of the track, then we'd probably start seeing some more indepth discussions of the models. It's not pressing at the moment, as long as she stays on track. I think that may be what they are waiting for, seeing if she veers a little. If she stays on track, then the models have a handle on her. If not, then it's time to discuss which models don't seem to be working. I think that is why they are keeping it a little general at the moment:

"THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS."
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NHC discussions - jimw, 8/31/2011, 11:09 pm
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