Re: NHC discussions
Posted by TuffyE on 9/1/2011, 6:25 am
I think they heard you; model discussion has returned.  

It seems to me that her track has a N component very early (east), but it's not much, just not 270.  The latest models that I have seen give her a little more N in 24 hours; we shall see.  Several do start to bend her back around Day 5, including the Eruopean and HWRF.  Since I like that last model and the GFD stuff has lost some credibility with me, I'm watching it and just have to note that it is the N outlier of the 3 right now.  The official forecast is below it.

All of that makes me see a lot of Latitude by 57-58 W, but we won't be completely out of the woods yet, it seems.  This should be a fair chance for all of the models to show off in this clean run away from land and the lower easterlies.  That leaves just the H and breaks and intensity.  We'll see, but I'm betting on the HWRF.
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NHC discussions - jimw, 8/31/2011, 11:09 pm
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