Re: NHC discussions
Posted by Target on 9/1/2011, 1:52 am
I did not expect a hurricane at this point.... A few days ago I thought there was a good chance Katia would have a convective burst each night and then get dried out a bit each day or hit shear and then not curve up so fast.

It's a tough call, a few days ago I figured the odd were maybe a 45% chance of the storm being a fish, and now I put it at 55%.

In 4 days I might think Katia will be worse than Irene. I don't know.

These ridges seem to be wasting no time coming across the US and bumping into the Atlantic high.

I don't really understand why the CMC and other models want to develop little lows in the ridge in a couple days. I guess the SST's are hot, and the Sun is not as hot. (Fall starts on the 23rd of September.)









We may be at risk by two storms at nearly the same time if the models are right about a storm forming in the GOM.







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NHC discussions - jimw, 8/31/2011, 11:09 pm
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