Re: NHC discussions
Posted by LawKat on 9/1/2011, 12:53 am
It can't be easy to do.  They have 55 million people from Florida to Maine watching them.  It's not like, if they jump the gun, nobody notices.  I do not envy the NHC.  They will always be hero or goat.  There is no in between.

As far as this storm, that ridge is not weakening behind that TUTT.  I think Katia is deep enough now as a storm that she should bounce around the TUTT.  

As far as the NHC goes, they employ highly qualified individuals.  These guys didn't just read a book and show up yesterday.  There are decades of collective experience at that place, if not centuries.  I think, at the end of the day, they are right more than they miss, but hey, it's the weather, who ever gets that right?

I'm not making light of it, but the more they discover, as with anything, the less they actually know.

After all, it wasn't until 2005 that the NHC discovered that former Cat 5s that may even be Cat 2s at landfall continue to maintain Cat 5 storm surge levels and wave action.  Unfortunately, they discovered that the hard way, but it's now widely studied and known.
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NHC discussions - jimw, 8/31/2011, 11:09 pm
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