Re: Irene Post-Mortem -- Why isn't dry air able to be forecast well?
Posted by
jimw on 9/1/2011, 9:22 am
| It was clearly obvious to several on this board that Irene was pulling in dry air. I mentioned it on nearly every hurricane watch show that this would not be a big wind event. I said I expected a BAT look as it approached the coast due to dry air intrusion. Now I am not highly educated like the folks at NHC but here is an idea OPEN YOUR EYES and stop falling in love with tropical model runs. Didnt the GFDL actuall;y show it restrengthening after leaving the Bahamas and approaching with 120mph winds? Meanwhile recon was showing flight level winds never mixing down to the surface far less than the usual 10% reduction & yet the hype of a major hurricane was at a fevered pitch on every network. |
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