92L's development chance has decreased somewhat, but remains high over next 5 days
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/15/2013, 8:14 am
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER LAND HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
&& PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=etwo
$$ FORECASTER AVILA"
That was posted about exactly at 8am. I bet they were waiting for the first visible satellite images of the morning. |
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In this thread:
92L's development chance has decreased somewhat, but remains high over next 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 8/15/2013, 8:14 am- Merida, Mexico winds and pressure - DTB_2009, 8/15/2013, 5:48 pm
- Re: 92L's development chance has decreased somewhat, but remains high over next 5 days - Model Runs - tvsteve, 8/15/2013, 5:32 pm
- Message Removed - jimw, 8/15/2013, 4:12 pm
- NOAA recon canceled - Chris in Tampa, 8/15/2013, 10:53 am
- Re: 92L's development chance has decreased somewhat, but remains high over next 5 days - cypresstx, 8/15/2013, 9:13 am
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