Re: GoM
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/26/2015, 9:36 pm
18Z surface:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_18Z.gif
From: Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC surface forecast:
24hrs: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif
48hrs: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif
72hrs, with 96hr pos. noted with X: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

There is an ULL heading that way from east of Florida. It might be weakening though, I don't know:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-mloop-wv.html

It looks like something is trying to form where you mention, but it might just get even more hostile, at least short term. But as for rainfall, I'm not sure if development is better or worse. Sometimes it is worse when it doesn't develop. Either way though, little movement is forecast.

Shear maps seem to be very confusing sometimes:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
I don't know how it is supposed to change, but for now it seems rather high just from looking at the satellite and even that shear product above.

Looking at this page:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html
Shear seems to be a bit higher than normal there right now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_aVSHD_024.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_aVSHD_048.gif

Gulf of Mexico shear chart:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_VSHD.gif

Caribbean shear chart:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_VSHD.gif
Look at the drop on that one getting closer to normal.

I don't know how accurate those are though. I always wonder.
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GoM - Gianmarc, 7/26/2015, 7:44 pm
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