Re: Misleading / fake information on social media
Posted by
hurricane on 9/1/2017, 3:48 pm
Chris...thank you. Solid advice for everyone
Here are the words of wisdom from one of our local meteorologists (and my personal favorite).
9-1-17 FRIDAY 11AM
Ed Piotrowski - ed@wpde.com
HURRICANE IRMA
Hurricane Irma has weakened just a bit and is a category 2 hurricane with sustained wind near 110 mph. It's forecast to become a category 3 hurricane again over the weekend as it tracks toward the Leeward Islands.
Should you be worried? No. Should you keep an eye on it and have your hurricane plan ready? Yes. It's the middle of hurricane season and every year, there is a risk of a hurricane impacting our coast.
I would love to tell you right now if Irma was going to impact the South Carolina coast, but I can't. Many of the forecast models I use are very good at determining where a tropical system will be in 2-5 days, but often fail miserably beyond that time frame. A small error of 25 miles tomorrow could be over 1000 miles in 7-10 days.
Take a look at the European ensembles below. It's a collection of 51 different runs of the same model. Because our atmosphere is so chaotic and we can't sample it perfectly, we vary the initial conditions slightly and run the model again. Every run reveals a different outcome. If those outcomes are very similar, we have high confidence in the forecast. If those outcomes produce many different scenarios, confidence is low. As you can plainly see, there are many scenarios on the table beyond 5 days that include Irma heading to the Gulf of Mexico, up the east coast or even out to sea.
BOTTOM LINE: There are many factors that will determine Irma's future strength and track. They include interaction with the islands, wind shear, and high and low-pressure patterns that steer tropical systems.
IF Irma is going to impact the United States, it would likely be sometime in the September 10th -14th time frame.
For now, nothing to worry about, but certainly worth keeping an eye on. We'll have a better idea early next week where Irma COULD go.
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