Re: Misleading / fake information on social media
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2017, 4:20 pm
It's amazing, but as of 2pm EDT today Irma was still closer to the mainland African continent than any part of the Antilles. It's still so far out. In the coming hours it will finally be over half way across. (between African coast and nearest island in Antilles)

12Z GFS ensemble today:



12Z Euro ensemble not yet available on that site. Here's the 0Z Euro ensemble from overnight:



From: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/

I wish I knew more about ensembles. I wish you could see how each particular member's conditions differ and run a particular model to see the environment it reacts to. That person is right, that's what is good about ensembles. If they are close together you can see that even if there are changes in the storm and/or conditions around it, the track will generally be the same. When they are spread wide, that means that if something about the storm itself and/or some particular conditions around the storm change, the track could change more. That alone is a really nice thing to know, but I wish more could be known. Maybe it is and I don't know where to look.
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Misleading / fake information on social media - Chris in Tampa, 9/1/2017, 3:18 pm
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