Re: Sunday 0Z GFS moves very close to Antilles
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/3/2017, 1:15 am
I was focusing on the Antilles since they are first, but in the longer range there was a westward shift tonight in the global models for the 0Z runs in so far. (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) NAVGEM and ECMWF are not in yet.

Without recon data in the storm and right around it, I can't begin to guess how good the models are. Obviously there's other sources of data, like satellites, but recon usually helps to make things clearer. If we had recon (especially G-IV data Monday) and then the GFS and Euro had something close to the same track for a couple runs, that would be notable. We are getting to the point though where some of the models are 5 days out from potential impacts in the Bahamas if the storm follows some of these latest runs. That's no longer long range. Even the Continental U.S. within a couple days after that potentially.

But my main concern is on the Antilles right now. We're talking about three days from now they could be hit and you can't wait for recon for them. Of course it's about the WSW movement forecast, how long that lasts.
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Sunday 0Z GFS moves very close to Antilles - Chris in Tampa, 9/3/2017, 12:04 am
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