Global models
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/3/2017, 3:11 am
Unknown U.S. mainland impact:
Sunday 00Z UKMET: Only goes out 6 days, ends traveling WNW (285 degrees) through Bahamas
U.S. mainland landfalls:
Sunday 00Z ECMWF: About 9.5 days
Sunday 00Z GFS: 8.5 days
Sunday 00Z CMC: 7 days
Sunday 00Z NAVGEM: 7.25 days
Saturday 12Z JMA: 8 days
UKMET text file from:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt80.egrr..txt
Other models from Tropical Tidbits:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?region=watl
HWRF will have some data from NOAA P-3 mission Sunday.
NOAA G-IV Monday sampling high altitude around the storm and ahead of it. With the NOAA plane in there Sunday, maybe the models will get some of that. (beyond HWRF) Not sure.
Right now we have to rely on satellites mostly for knowing what Irma is doing. Not sure if there is much in the way of surface observations in the storm, or around, from ships and buoys. Once we get a plane in it, we get direct data about the storm. Then with G-IV we can get the area out in front of it sampled. We can know how the models are doing on the strength of the high pressure. Then across the US they take readings, like the weather balloons that go up in various places. That covers that area. By Monday night, into Tuesday, I think the models might stop shifting so much given all that data. Any potential landfall on U.S. mainland would then be about 5 to 7 days away then based on timing from current runs. |
158
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.