Why I Believe Tampa Bay is Now in Dire Trouble
Posted by Gianmarc on 9/8/2017, 11:39 pm
The 11 p.m. discussion officially has me deeply concerned about the Tampa Bay area. Here's why: The new projected landfall point has shifted from Naples to Sarasota over the past two updates. That westward trend has persisted for days now but as we near landfall in FL the shifts have become more slight with each subsequent update. As we know, the NHC's forecast accuracy historically has increased dramatically 24-36 hours prior to landfall. We now are 24-36 hours prior to landfall, with Irma taking a slightly more southerly route right now into the north-central Cuban coast, which I think nudges her eventual landfall point in FL a tad farther west. And in this point in the forecast period in which the forecast cone narrows and NHC's accuracy tends to increase greatly, NHC is showing a Cat 4 making landfall a 40-minute drive south of St. Petersburg. That means a 10-15 mile wobble west puts Tampa Bay in the bull's eye. If we wake up to this same track in the morning, which will be about 30 hours before landfall, or a track that has been nudged slightly west yet again, Tampa Bay is in the bull's eye. As we know on this board, a Cat 4 coming into Tampa Bay likely submerges downtown Tampa in 25 feet of water. I cannot believe how close we are at this moment to that scenario playing out, and I feel deeply concerned for those in the Tampa Bay area, where both of my sisters live along with my nephew and brother in law. They are driving to Tennessee tonight.
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Why I Believe Tampa Bay is Now in Dire Trouble - Gianmarc, 9/8/2017, 11:39 pm
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