Re: GFS Goes East
Posted by Beachlover on 9/9/2017, 1:39 am
While waiting for the Euro, some may wish to read (or re-read) parts of the 11 p.m. NHC discussion as I did.   Reminds us that looking at models is not ALL they do -- they also have an intelligence/methodology of their own in determining likely tracks -- and my point is made by the following discussion excerpt, entirely disregarding the fact the 00Z GFS wasn't out yet.  Of course we'll see just how strongly they adhere to this track later or tomorrow; I'm simply making a  point about models not necessarily being the be-all, end-all, which presumably most of y'all know.
Bolded areas by me:

Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than
expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.
The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning
west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to
the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time,
Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate
after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and
then into Georgia. Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from
its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted
slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to
the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint
exactly where the center might move onshore.

If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move
inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not
lose much intensity during the next day or so.  As we've stated
many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36
hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles.
After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may
increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is
anticipated at that time.  Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast.  Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.
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GFS Goes East - haloeffect, 9/9/2017, 12:14 am
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