Should we be looking farther north?
Posted by JAC on 7/21/2009, 7:18 am


Shear is playing havoc on 97L.  Amazingly LL vorticity is still high.

One thing that caught my eye is a weak but developing LL vorticity on the north shore of Cuba.

MIMIC-TPW is very interesting with a huge flow developing along the east coast and theta-e concentrating in the Bahamas.

As a result, convection is firing.

There is a broad, relatively weak area of LL convergence and UL divergence here.

A shortwave is digging thru the east Conus and at the end are two lows and a surface trough.

One low in the NE GOM and the other on the GA shore.

So, the models have been hinting at a development along the coast.

But what about shear?

Usually very strong along a stalled front; and it is.

One thing I learned this week is CMC is pretty good at forecasting shear and you can throw GFS out the window.

So, CMC is showing reduced shear in about 60 hrs on the east coast of FL and hinting at an anti-cyclone.

Also CMC is showing 97L moving NW into the area and combining with this new vorticity area. 

It initializes as a warm core with genesis Thursday and going deep with a run along the coast.

Been very consistant the last few days.

GFS shows the same vorticity combining scenario but not much development.

To tell you the truth; I don't give much weight to GFS anymore.

Maybe Bobbi it made to NC just in time to get settled in and watch the fireworks.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009072100&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=060hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009072106&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation





































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Should we be looking farther north? - JAC, 7/21/2009, 7:18 am
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