Re: yellow box ..overdone?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/21/2009, 8:36 pm
0.1 to 29.9% is a big range. One yellow circle might have a 25% chance and the other a 5% chance. The other deal is 48 hours. Looking at the shear, it makes the chances rather slim for the next 48 hours to see an actual storm out of it. Beyond that perhaps, but when do you draw the yellow circle then?

Lets say there is a really good chance down the road (in general, not talking about these two) but there is a lot of shear around and will be for at least several days. When do you draw the yellow circle and give people notice? There might be a 3% chance of it forming within 48 hours, but if you think there might be a great chance at formation three or four days from now, do you go ahead and draw the circle in anticipation of that since you are still in the less than 30% range for the yellow circle?

I think it is a no win situation. If you were to add more ranges of percentages it would just make it even more challenging. I do like a three color system. It makes it easy. It's one of those deals where I think the media just need to be responsible. If they hype a yellow, they're going to look awfully bad a lot of the time. And as for those who visit the NHC's site, hopefully they pay attention to what it is actually saying. Like for these two for example:

"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND DO NOT FAVOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY OR SO."

"THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT."

And the less than 30% chance line...

"THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

I see yellow and don't think much. Not until orange for me. (or if it seems things will improve I might pay a little more attention to yellow)
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yellow box ..overdone? - Doorman, 7/21/2009, 7:21 pm
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