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Posted by BP31 on 7/21/2009, 10:25 pm
It is important to remember that the yellow box on the graphical tropical weather outlook indicates there is a less than 30% chance of development.  I spoke with senior forecaster at the national hurricane Center  Jack Beven at the 2009 governor's hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale.  I asked him about the tropical weather outlook because for years I have found them misleading and a hard to follow.  Mr. Bevan explained that each shift of forecasters may have a slightly different interpretation of the same disturbed area after speaking to Jack my interpretation of the tropical weather outlook has changed and has led me to the following conclusion, as we get closer to the heart of the hurricane season disturbances can develop quickly and one should use the tropical weather outlooks as a guide, and think of them as a snapshot in time of what's going on in the Atlantic Basin at the time the outlook is issued.
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yellow box ..overdone? - Doorman, 7/21/2009, 7:21 pm
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