Re: Special Late Night Re-Upgrade of TD2
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/15/2009, 1:22 am
Size definitely matters here. 90L has the potential to become very large and powerful, but that takes time because of its size:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

And at the moment it is not having a significant problem looking better.

TD2:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

Is much smaller and while it can go poof, or rather go naked for a bit like it did when it became a "remnant low", it can also ramp up a lot more quickly. So now we see if the shear can get to it in the next few days. The NHC mentions it in the discussion, but that is still not a lot of shear as noted by SHIPS:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/09081500AL0209_ships.txt

And of course the discussion tonight caps it off with "HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS." So once again they are reiterating the uncertainty.

This was also interesting:

"HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES."

And of course there is also the dry air:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/main_water_vapor.gif
(5MB image)
From: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
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Special Late Night Re-Upgrade of TD2 - Chris in Tampa, 8/15/2009, 12:41 am
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