Shear lines
Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/21/2009, 12:16 pm
Couple of thoughts.  It's still in about 500 km/second of solar winds but we have had up until this moment yet another burst in xray activity, which has died down.

During this time the anti cyclone which was south of Bill has disapeared and there are isobars of upper level winds (shear) which extent from south of the Yucatan impact site and the ITCZ to the SW portion of the storm where all the heavy shear must be and where there is an outflow boundary.  Again I wonder to myself about the Mitch wobble in this kind of environment, which assumes, of course, that the xray activity would continue, which it is not.  With solar winds so fast you would expect that any electrical organization from increases in ozone would be quickly ripped away when winds are this high.  Indeed at http://www.spaceweather.com there is a neat photo of aurora in the context of what the solar winds are doing.

That said mechanically it's headed for low shear.  It's also seems to find that at least in the GOM that the theta ts are moving west with the storm.  It clearly remains attached to its ICTZ embilical cord of theta ts.  While that doesn't say much about track, it may say something about the fact that if the storm is large enough, even if the storm doesn't landfall on New England it could be large enough so that impacts are felt there.

Anyway, still watching for Mitch wobbles in the context of the xray activity.  Clearly how the storm RI is influenced, but what about track?
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Big jump back up in core temp - JAC, 8/21/2009, 10:45 am
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